Monday, November 27, 2006


i think sometimes its good to step away for a second and make sure you arent going crazy. today was a 20 handle selloff in the sp500, dollar is gettin smacked and gold is taking off. and the ISE is trading around 53. all in all pretty things are goin my way a little bit. im still long CAMH, GM puts, GS puts, and SPY puts. the puts have come my way a bit and well see if we can get some more. the dollar is going to be the major story of th 4th quarter, it looks like a ton of selling is about to take place. not sure if thats good or bad for stocks, but i know its bad for that vacation to Greece.

Monday, November 13, 2006


the dollar is headed down, and if you see the chart i have posted in the past i think its going to conitnue. see the link . China joins russia, most of the middle east, and a bunch o asia in this change. I think I should do the same and will look to get into Yen and more gold. Im just a huge buyer of gold now, i think its going to really charge up soon.

Thursday, November 09, 2006


Its breaking out and is gonna continue. The china news that they are going to shift around their currency reserves is huge news and I think will motor gold right up. The dollar on the other hand is in trouble and is getting deystroyed. im not a currency trader but i cant help but see my buying power overseas dropping steadily.

elsewhere its an interesting time for the market as we see if maybe a top has formed or if its a healthy pullback. Im still net short, but have hedged a bit. As a result its tought to add positions especially when Ive built such a gold and short housing position(s) recently. both are working out well and should continue my way. And boy do i need it.

Wednesday, November 08, 2006


well, the market likes dems and no rummy. bushs press conference was funny..i mean i WANT to like the guy, im a republican. but he just comes off as such a total jackass you cant help but think to yourself "what the f is he doing there". cisco had great earngings, so did priceline and look - this economy might be slowing but for right now stocks are just going higher. ive come to face it and have invested accordingly selling my sds for a nice loss and buying some spy. my xhb short is working out well and gold positions are holding steady.

my thesis for this economy hasnt changed - i still think we are in for some trouble but as has been reinforced to me its not what i think its what the market thinks. so buys stocks and sell some bonds. and then maybe go to the store and buy some more shit - maybe even with a nice credit card.

Tuesday, November 07, 2006

up n down

well, its funny cause everyone probably says and thinks what im about to say moves up sharply and i sell my sds and roll into some SPY longs. Market then sells off and i end up flat. Im still net short - im just aware that many people more experienced than me are calling for a bull market into year end. certainly they could be wrong, but until the market shows signs of turning over im with them. I thought for a second last week it was going to turn down but this week has shown otherwise.

single stock wise i like buying GAP stores volatility ahead of earnings next week. personally i think the store is garbage and will have bad earnings but i think there will be a big move either way.
Bob toll the man
i also want to add to my XHB homebuilders put position - more garbage news and more problems out of those crap companies. Where is the vision of these CEOs? The diversification? Just unreal to me that they couldnt see this slowdown coming. Although I guess they were pretty good at selling their stock at the

right time... What assholes.


well, yesterday was a strong day in the market ahead of elections today. Interesting that volume was garbage and everyone was dead quiet. Feels like the market is going to head higher soon and Im going to cover more of my short position.

Sunday, November 05, 2006


Well, a decent jobs report last week kept the market from dropping and I suspect to see some more trending today and tomorrow ahead of the election. Does it matter to the market? I dont think so. Right now its about the consumer and if they show some less consuming or lack of confidence into the holiday season we could have some problems. Gold has continued to be strong and Im liking it even more. Dunno what else looks good right now...if you dont have money invested I might wait to see if we can find a direction up or down.

I am also watching these CAD nat gas trusts as they might be a big buying opportunity. I want to see how it hangs in over the next week or two but I plan on starting to buy now.

If nothing else comes from this week it will be the end of all these pompus political commercials...

Thursday, November 02, 2006

The break remains to be seen

Well, today wasnt to telling. No conirmtion of sellers yada yada yada. Look, right now the thing that is goign to push the market one way or the other is the retail numbers Same store sales. My shop things they are going to be bad - partially becase they were so strong over the last few weeks. GAP today reported terrible numbers, same with WMT and TGT while up was weak. If the consumer shows a dent maybe that will be the tipping point.

There is no doubt the economy is showing do you make money off of it is the question. Me? I think buy volatility. Ive thought that for a while - but its so cheap that even if you take a few shots and fail when it does spike youll make some nice cash.

And also, Borat opens tomorrow which will be the greatest movie ever.

Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Down? Are you kidding?

Well today - first on the or year for some funds and first of the month and we go down over 10 handles. Fascinating...When thinking about how steep and fast the last rally was I decided on what I believe drove it up. I think it was a foreign central bank or gov't inflows. It would take a while to prove/disprove that theory but who else could 1)have that cash 2) be so indifferent to price? So what happens if it was another central bank who pushed the market up into the month/year close and is now done buying? Face it - the economic numbers are crap. Fed funds are pricing an EASING in march and while people say earnings are good those earnings are based on lower forecasts and stock buybacks.

Ive been wrong this whole way up - not on the economy but on the market and that is a very important distinction. Its not what I think - its what the market things. The last few days have been pointing to a sharp move down and if we are going to get one its going to have to happen soon before confidence builds and we proceed north.