Tuesday, October 24, 2006


Well nice little trending day today ahead of the fed. Now I dont have a CFA or am much of an analyst but stuff like CFC kills me. The company missed numbers, warned and "tightened guidance". Then they say we are going to fire 2500 people and are going to have a Q4 buyback. How to pay for the buyback? Issue debt. SO Q4 earnings are going to be better becasue less shares outstanding and depending on what it costs to fire people . The company sucks, the industry sucks and the stock was UP over 2bucks today. Here is da chart.

I need to face something there is some massive buying out there. A lot of stories about China and other countries buying into US market which could explain the run but who the heck knows. I do know that volatility is dead, and the market hasnt had anyhting more that a -0.5% down day in the month of October which is historically a bad month. Lets not forget the election which while you may say "thats bull" how do you discount it? A hotly contested election gas prices diving and market ripping? I suppose you could claim those are somewhat correlated but thing about how strong the market was last year with oil at all time highs.

I want to buy some CFC puts here - ill see how the stock acts over the next day or so. Today had to be a squeeze. I may buy some upside SPY calls just to protect myself. I also am checking out some toy makers like HAS on some strong xmas sales which looks like we might get.


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