Wednesday, April 20, 2005

4/20/2005 Rally cap

INTC and YHOO both with great earnings PPI numbers came out high. PFE earnings were not too bad so I think I will stay with them for a bit, same for LLY. THe next week should be positive for the mkt as I think the huge drop last week made some ppl think that there are some good deals out there now. Im long the market for the short term here, I didnt expect such solid numbers from INTC and YHOO. PPL are starting to worry about summer gas inventories and OPEC saying they might trim production.
  • Staying long oil and nat gas has proven to be pretty good oil 52.71 (Im up 4.3%) nat gas 7.118 (Im up 1.6%)
  • My call to continue market short went in my face a bit, I broke even since last post. Im long now 115.30
  • TOL continue to short this, sold off hard then came back a bit (75.5 im up 1.9%)
  • Gold, dollar is still weak and will come off. Continue long! (433.8 im up 1.7%)
  • PFE 27.42 im off 1% LLY im up 2.7% 59.45 Continue long here

Monday, April 18, 2005

3/18/2005 UHOH

the last 3 days have been the ugliest is something like 3 years. today the dollar is off and oil is below 50 for the first time in months. the vix spike up like crazy to highs not seen in months as obviously people are freaked out a bit, but I think well see the market prop up a bit here in the near term.
  • I but healthcare, with PFE reporting I am a bit concerned but LLY beat so I think we are ok. Buy PFE (27.71) Buy LLY (58.07)
  • Continue long gold and add to position (GLD 42.40)
  • Continue TOL short (73.41)
  • Oil worries me short term but I am still bullish long. I am just holding my position.
  • Cover SPY short position (114.15) Look for a rebound and short again

Friday, April 15, 2005

4/15/2005 Market

GE posts much better than expected however that is about it in terms of good news. Im looking to see moeny start to roll in defensive positions namely pharma and heathcare, thinking calls here would be a good idea in MRK and PFE but they have been on a tear last 2 days. Have seen some short covering in GM and will buy puts if it gets around 29.5 level again. Housing market looking weak still short anything like TOL.
  • Continue market short SPY (115.77 right now). Why buy anything?
  • Buy more gold (426.5 this position has been hurting me but i buy weakness) See other factors involved in dollar bear rally like Euro constitution meeting which would love to see weaker Euro. China is going to revalue Yuan before end of '06 at which point dollar gets smoked. Also change to oil for euros instead of dollar.
  • Buy oil/nat gas here 50.51/7.005. At worst oil comes down to 45
  • Continue TOL short right now around 77. "Rental market improving" if you want a house u have it by now. Dump the second house!