Thursday, September 28, 2006

well, im still gettin hit pretty hard on my SDS and SPY puts. Gold and nat gas names have come back strong so that has helped. Dell is at 23 and I am contemplating selling but will see what the market does. I think this is all quarter end related - at least I hope. The more data and news i read the more bearish i get. Three hedge funds have gone downin the last month, housing is horrible, and now the first of the financiers are getting drop kicked.

time will tell good luck to me.

Monday, September 25, 2006

i dont understand

so the media headlines today state that the market is up because housing starts are way down so the fed will lower interest rates.


Im getting killed right now and am fighting the market. with SDS I have no time value so im fine with that. the spy puts though are starting to make me worry.

Saturday, September 23, 2006


well, maybe amaranth was the first shot fired - time will tell. 6bn to lose isnt that much money when you consider the amount of global liquidity that surrounds it. I think 6bn is an understandment when you consider the fund of funds and pure psychology that changes in the marketplace. 10yr bonds are jetting right up - the bond market is predicting somehting bad and while the stock market hasnt really followed it has taken a breather. its at a 5 month trendline now - its either a double top or its going to blow through and im going to lose a lot of money.

Monday, September 18, 2006


i want to get long nat gas here...pvx 12 and xle 59.

all eyes on fed wed if we rip outta that i might cover some of my market short. i feel like its going my way though....just a feeling.

Friday, September 15, 2006

climb north

well - im eating it pretty bad. my current positions are down 5% and i have been slapped pretty good in my nat gas and gold positions which is still in my portfolio thanks to my holding period. SDS is now down to 66 - i think ill buy some more. "Dont from average down"

THe market has certain had some good news points - solid broker earnings and some tech improvements. But im sticking with my short with the dec/jan time horizon - if im still wrong then ill cover. That or 1350.

Im actually thinking aboutgetting long oil again here looking for a little bounce. its very oversold in my opionion. Im also waiting for a nat gas bottom to load up on some nice div paying instruments even if the divs are slashed with the lower prices it will sill be a better investment than most.

And now peopel are talking deflation - CPI rose again and the economy may slow. Uhoh.

Tuesday, September 05, 2006


I recently read the book Finacial Reckoning Day and I really had one major takeaway. As the US population ages it is going to withdrawl money out of the economy and the stockmarket. 401ks IRAs and regular investments are going to reduce - and who is there to replace that outflow. The inflows arent there.

Second point is on liquidity and volatility. With so much liquidity volatility has been squished. Spreads are tighter and there is more volume. If there really is a liquidity bubble and we see a contraction of liquidity what will happen to volatility?

Sunday, September 03, 2006

Labor Day

So on the latest employment release everyone was pumped because there were 128k new jobs. But - if you read the report that was after a 120 adjustement in the birth/death rate. Basically only 8k jobs were made. I mean every single number is adjusted or faked or something. Its kind of pompus.

This week I sold my intel calls when the stock was just under 20. Well see i may have been early on that. Im waiting to see what the market does before i buy more SDS...that rally to 1320ish might just happen and I want to have some powder in case it does. Dont frown average down right.

Also my GM puts look like crap again off of some good sales numbers - well better than expected. Im still believing in the positions but looks like I might see some pain and might cover if thats the case.

Im still long DELL hoping the stock comes back to 25 at least abit more.